U.S. Treasury Yields Reach the 4.5% "Pain Point" — Semiconductor Sector Faces Direct Hit if AI Investment Contracts (May 18, 2026)

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note — the benchmark long-term interest rate in the United States and a widely regarded barometer of the global economic cycle — has broken through 4.5%, the market's psychological resistance level. Observers note that if the upward trend in Treasury yields persists, capital outflows by foreign investors and a deceleration in the semiconductor industry's growth trajectory could subject the KOSPI, which had surged to 8,000 points, to a period of correction.

According to the financial investment industry on the 18th, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.595% on the 16th (local time), up 0.136 percentage points from the previous session. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield also rose 0.115 percentage points to 5.128% on the same day — its highest level in approximately 19 years, since July 2007, just prior to the Global Financial Crisis.

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In the securities industry, the psychological resistance level for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is generally set at 4.5%.

Past episodes suggest that when bond yields exceed this threshold, market funds tend to shift from equities — a relatively riskier asset class — into bonds, thereby increasing the likelihood of a stock market correction.

Kim Seok-hwan, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, stated: "In general, the market defines 4.5% on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield as the 'pain point,'

and in many instances it has served as a catalyst for equity market corrections." He added: "Unofficially, President Trump has also demonstrated a pattern of 'one step back' — the so-called 'TACO' response — whenever the 10-year yield approaches or exceeds the pain point."

https://n.news.naver.com/article/421/0008950024?sid=101