Assessment of the Article "[2025 Parliamentary Audit] Pension Report on 'Old-Age Security' Withheld — 'A Shield for Yoon Suk-yeol's Pension Reform'" (October 24, 2025)

This assessment represents the Pension Future Forum's evaluation of the National Pension Research Institute report that became controversial in last year's parliamentary audit.

The contested report titled "Development of a Microsimulation Model for Public Pensions" has been appended as a file.

The report appears to present long-term old-age income projections based on scientifically rigorous methodology.

However, aspects of the report's analytical findings appear to align with positions favored by particular constituencies.

After reviewing the contested report, the Pension Future Forum wishes to offer the following assessment.

From the layperson's perspective:

Even if the models employed to present certain findings appear methodologically sound,

experts familiar with the subject matter can identify substantial gaps and deficiencies.

The most significant problem in the research methodology of the contested report is that

it does not present the assumptions used to derive its findings anywhere in the report itself.

Only the model description and the analytical results obtained through the model are included.

Setting aside the question of the analytical model's validity,

the analytical results could differ substantially depending on which assumptions are adopted.

In that the report omits the fundamental assumptions central to evaluating its analytical findings,

the report appears to fall short of the minimum requirements that any report should meet.

Before political criticism proceeds, this point warrants examination.

In most cases, "the devil is in the details."

 

(Portions of the article in question are reproduced below.)

A National Pension Service report contradicting the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's National Pension reform proposal was permanently withheld from public access, and it was raised as a point of contention during the parliamentary audit that the National Pension Service had concealed the report from citizens in order to support the Yoon administration's pension reform.

Assembly members questioned the National Pension Service about who outside the organization had ordered the permanent withholding.

Han Jeong-lim, director of the National Pension Research Institute, who made the decision to withhold the report, denied having received any instructions.

The report "Development of a Microsimulation Model for Public Pensions," completed in early 2025 as pension reform was underway, was recommended for publication by 2 of 3 internal and external reviewers, but after the Ministry of Health and Welfare raised concerns about its contents, the report was permanently withheld from public access.

Following <The Fact>'s recent coverage of the permanent withholding, the National Pension Research Institute reversed its decision and made the report publicly accessible within five days of that coverage.

(The related report has been appended as a file.)

https://n.news.naver.com/article/629/0000437181?sid=102