[Contributed Column — Jeong Seong-hun] The National Pension's Depletion in 2090 and the Illusion of Investment Returns (February 24, 2026)

(The Pension Future Forum regards this column as a timely and highly relevant contribution!

The Pension Future Forum firmly asserts that our pension problem must be approached from precisely this perspective!)

In 2025, the National Pension recorded unprecedented investment performance, driven by sharp rallies in both domestic and international equity markets.

The annual fund investment return exceeded 20%, and investment gains are estimated to have reached approximately 200 trillion won.

When projections emerged suggesting that the National Pension's fund depletion date could be pushed back from the previously projected 2057 to as late as 2090, hopeful reactions arose asking whether the pension problem had effectively been resolved.

As of this January, however, such optimism poses a significant risk of obscuring the very essence of pension reform.

Above all, this performance reflects a transient effect of the market surge rather than the outcome of any structural improvement.

It is merely the result of rising domestic and international equity markets converging with the National Pension Fund's high equity allocation, and it is difficult to accept it as a sustainable trend. The higher the equity allocation, the greater the volatility of returns. The moment markets undergo a correction, the fund's investment return, too, will inevitably deteriorate sharply. Ultimately, the "2090 depletion" projection is nothing more than a conditional scenario premised on one year's exceptional performance.

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Ensuring the sustainability of the National Pension requires structural reform and the restoration of public trust at the same time. Medium- and long-term fiscal stabilization measures—including the contribution rate and benefit eligibility criteria—can no longer be deferred.

At the same time, the risk of excessive equity concentration must be mitigated, and a stable asset allocation framework—including overseas and alternative investments—must be strengthened.

Furthermore, it is essential to build independent governance that transparently discloses fiscal projections and investment performance to the public and shuts out political interference.

For the pension is a social contract that binds one generation to the next.

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The high fund investment return of 2025 is certainly welcome news. But we must not become intoxicated by the results and paper over the structural problems.

What we need now is not transient gains but honest reform and responsible choices.

The pension is a promise that one generation hands down to the next.

So that this promise does not falter, now is precisely the time to embark on substantive reform.

https://n.news.naver.com/article/088/0000998248?sid=110