[In-Depth Analysis] The World Order Has Broken Down: Ray Dalio's Warning (2026.02.17)

(The Pension Future Forum, which emphasizes a fact-based approach in pension reform discussions, maintains distance from politically partisan forces and pursues political neutrality.)

The Pension Future Forum has no interest in the personal political views of the author of this column. It is published here as an expert column solely because its contents are judged to be closely relevant to the management of the National Pension Fund, which bears responsibility for securing the retirement income of the Korean people.

This is because, of late, there appears to be an attempt to force political considerations upon the management of the National Pension Fund!)

On February 15, 2026, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates — the world's largest hedge fund — published a post on X (formerly Twitter) with an unequivocal title.

"It's Official: The World Order Has Broken Down." In that post, Dalio directly cited the 2026 Munich Security Conference report "Under Destruction," writing that "the post‑1945 world order has broken down."

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The risk of capital warfare is particularly acute for Korea. Just as Dalio observed in Dubai that "capital controls and capital warfare are already unfolding across the globe," Korea finds itself in the midst of that capital warfare.

The absence of a Korea–U.S. currency swap arrangement means that the emergency exit for dollar liquidity has been closed.

At the same time, the 138 trillion won in Korean government bonds held by China constitutes a potential weapon in the capital warfare that Dalio describes — one that "uses debt holdings as leverage."

As long as the "mutual fears" that Dalio warns of persist, this weapon may be deployed at any moment.

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Dalio notes that, historically, during periods of imperial decline, asset prices have repeatedly diverged from the real economy and surged dramatically.

When governments expand debt to inject liquidity and central banks provide the backstop, asset prices rise in nominal terms while real purchasing power declines. This is precisely what is occurring in Korea today.

The KOSPI's sharp gains are driven by two semiconductor stocks — Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The perceived conditions of the broader real economy remain bleak.

January employment growth was 108,000 — the lowest in 13 months. Household debt continues to exceed 100% of GDP. As Dalio puts it, "what matters is the proportion of people who are suffering more than average, and their collective power."

If a KOSPI level of 5,500 fails to improve the lives of the majority of citizens, it reflects not the health of the system but its distortion.

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More concerning is the role of the National Pension. Reports have emerged that the National Pension, having effectively exhausted its domestic equity purchase limit, is set to engage in additional purchases — potentially on a scale of up to 30 trillion won.

This has prompted criticism that contributors' retirement funds are being mobilized for policy objectives — namely, defending the exchange rate and propping up stock prices.

It is difficult to dismiss the concern that this constitutes a harbinger of the scenario Dalio warns of — namely, that once "a government loses its fiscal capacity, it can no longer bail out the necessary parts of the private sector, and thereby loses power."

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The author shares the same sense of urgency.

The likelihood that Korea's current political structure will follow the path that Dalio prescribes — restoring fiscal soundness, controlling inflation, and achieving national cohesion — is exceedingly low.

What, then, can individuals do?

Dalio's answer is clear.

"Prepare for extreme diversification." The author's answer is equally clear. This is not investment — it is survival. Not the expansion of wealth, but the defense of assets. Not prosperity, but self-preservation.

https://www.fntoday.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=377578