National Pension Beneficiaries to Pass 10 Million in 2030… Contributors Fall While Payments Surge (2026.08.10.)

(Annual payments

surge to 81.7 trillion won…

a sharp increase;

contributors

fall to 20.51 million)

A projection has emerged that, while the number of National Pension contributors falls in the wake of a shrinking working-age population, the number of beneficiaries and the amount paid out will surge as the retirement of the baby-boom generation gets under way in earnest.

According to the National Pension Research Institute’s report “Medium-Term Financial Projection for the National Pension (2026–2030)” on the 10th,

the total number of National Pension contributors is projected to fall from 21.81 million at the end of 2025 to 21.40 million at the end of 2026, and to keep declining to about 20.51 million by the end of 2030. As the decline in the working-age population gets under way in earnest, the contributor base is on a weakening trend.

By contrast, the number of people receiving the National Pension and the amount paid out increase sharply. In 2026 the number of beneficiaries is estimated at about 8.28 million and total annual benefit expenditure at about 56 trillion won. Thereafter it passes 8.81 million (62.7 trillion won) in 2027, 9 million (68 trillion won) in 2028 and 9.53 million (73.8 trillion won) in 2029,

and in 2030 beneficiaries reach 10.6 million, passing the 10 million mark, while benefit expenditure enters the era of 81.7 trillion won.

This is the effect of the influx of beneficiaries from the baby-boom generation born in the 1960s.

Despite the fall in contributors, pension contribution revenue is estimated to maintain an upward trend — 68.6 trillion won in 2026, 73.5 trillion won in 2027 and 91.6 trillion won in 2030 — owing to factors such as the phased increase in the contribution rate (from 9% to 13%) under the pension reform enacted in April 2025.

The size of the National Pension’s accumulated fund, including investment returns, is projected to expand from 1,458 trillion won at the end of 2025 to 1,534 trillion won at the end of 2026 and 1,614 trillion won at the end of 2027, reaching about 1,898 trillion won by the end of 2030.

The National Pension Research Institute plans to continue reflecting demographic change and shifts in institutional conditions so as to raise the accuracy of its financial projections.

The size of the National Pension’s accumulated fund, including investment returns, is projected to expand from 1,458 trillion won at the end of 2025 to 1,534 trillion won at the end of 2026 and 1,614 trillion won at the end of 2027, reaching about 1,898 trillion won by the end of 2030.

The National Pension Research Institute plans to continue reflecting demographic change and shifts in institutional conditions so as to raise the accuracy of its financial projections.